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The Manhattan Real Estate Market May Be At An Inflection Point: Watch These Categories – Forbes

As Manhattan real estate begins the fall busy season, time will tell if this recovery cycle has … [+] enough buyers in reserve to keep progressing or if a pause is in the works.
As Manhattan real estate enters the fall busy season, it bears asking: What does the market look like today, and where is it headed? After recovery from the pandemic lows last year, the market appears poised for further gains. There are four primary points that we can look at that suggest Manhattan may be at an inflection point: Inventory, demand, market “feel,” and price action.

From November 2020 through August 2021, Manhattan experienced a sustained net deficit of new inventory when considering contracts signed and listings removed from the market. The fresh wave of listings that hit the market post-Labor Day should reverse this squeeze temporarily. However, with demand remaining at elevated levels, any reversal may be temporary. Today’s buyers may have a window of opportunity to find and negotiate on a home before the next wave of contract action hits in early October.

Net Negative | New supply still under pressure despite surge of fresh listings.
Busy seasons in real estate begin with sellers and end with buyers — new listings come on the market, and several weeks later, signed contracts take them off.

As the first month of the busy fall season, September usually sees high listing activity but low contract activity because buyers have not had enough time to get deals done. As a result, the pending sales number for September tends to hover between 2,000 and 3,000 units. However, September 2021 showed over 4,500 units in contract, clearly demonstrating how far above historical norms recent deal volume has been, and hinting that activity will remain at elevated levels toward the end of the year.

September to Remember | Pending sales at the end of summer since 2011
A look at the ratio of pending sales to active listings quantifies how the market “feels,” and provides a window into the market’s pulse.

As the ratio rises, sellers gain leverage, and as it falls, buyers gain leverage. This real-time gauge is separate from price action, which usually takes several months to fully manifest. The chart below illustrates what the Manhattan real estate market felt like since it reached its peak in mid-2015. Notice how the leverage slowly and steadily shifted from sellers to buyers culminating in a deep buyer’s market during the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown, and then quickly reverted to a strong seller’s market in 2021 as demand began eclipsing supply. Even though it’s still a seller’s market, the post-Labor Day influx of listings pushed the ratio down in September, suggesting that buyers have more leverage now than the last several months.

Manhattan Market Pulse | Demand-to-supply ratio indicating leverage

Manhattan has vast spectrums of price points and property types, which makes tracking price action tricky. The old standby, median sales price, is a broad look across all sales and is more a function of the size and type of properties sold. Price per square foot yields a more linear view, but most of Manhattan’s housing stock are co-ops with no verifiable data on apartment size.
On the other hand, condos offer a recorded and measurable unit size. Unfortunately, new development condo prices tend to skew far higher than average. Removing new developments from the mix leaves resale condo price per square foot as a more precise way of looking at market-wide price action, especially when measured by the month of contract signing.

In the chart below, the general price trend since 2003 is visible. The dashed lines represent pre-pandemic resistance and support levels, and roughly outline the channel Manhattan price action was trading in at that time. Notably, Manhattan prices have slowly fallen since 2015, and even dipped below the bottom support level, suggesting an oversold market. The recovery in activity has started to reverse this course, and, at present, the general price trend is back in its channel, albeit on the low-end. With demand remaining high in the near term, current price levels may appear as a relative value when viewed over the longer term. On the contrary, should market conditions deteriorate, the recently crossed support line may serve as resistance.

Resale Condo Price Per Square Foot | Monthly median by contract signed date
The Manhattan market is well into its recovery from the pandemic lows experienced during the middle of last year. A recent influx of new inventory has eased supply pressures. Still, with liquidity running at a very high level, an environment of lower supply may appear during the next active season. Prices should continue to trend upwards as the bounce off COVID lows continues, and the pipeline of signed deals over the frenetic summer months closes.

Sellers may be confused that prices are only back to 2019 levels while the market activity in the streets feels more like 2015 or 2016 levels, but the data is clear: We have only recovered 2020’s “COVID discount.” There is a way to go before prices start notching new highs.

As Manhattan real estate begins the fall busy season, time will tell if this recovery cycle has enough buyers in reserve to keep progressing or if a pause is in the works. Either way, today’s buyers have more choice than they have had in several months, with prices seemingly headed higher.

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Real Estate

Transforming the Real Estate World: The Story of Alberto Conesa

In the fast-paced world of real estate, where competition is fierce and opportunities are fleeting, there emerges a figure who has revolutionized the way real estate agents and agencies operate and thrive. Alberto Conesa, a passionate visionary with a clear mission, has transformed the lives of thousands of real estate professionals in Europe, the United States, and Latin America over the past four years. His company, BrandingCenter® – Advanced Real Estate Training, has been the source of inspiration and knowledge behind this revolution.

An Impressive Journey

Alberto Conesa is no stranger to the real estate industry. His commitment and dedication to excellence in this field have led him to work with over 5000 agencies across three continents, creating systems and strategies that not only boost revenue but also generate multiple sources of income. His impact extends far beyond geographical borders, and his story is a source of inspiration for all those looking to excel in this competitive sector.

From Author to Mentor: A Leader in Real Estate Education

Alberto Conesa is the author of two successful books that have become benchmarks in the real estate industry: «Master, Real Estate Agents Who Build a High-Revenue Mind» and «Real Estate Branding, Awaken the Titan.» These works have not only been widely praised but have also provided real estate agents with the tools and knowledge needed to excel in an ever-evolving market.

Beyond writing, Alberto has established himself as the most disruptive trainer in the Spanish-speaking real estate sector.

He offers his services as a mentor and consultant to agencies and real estate agents, sharing his deep knowledge and vast experience to guide them toward success. His approach goes beyond offering theoretical advice; it is based on field-tested strategies, ensuring tangible and sustainable results.

Well-Deserved Recognition

Alberto Conesa achievements speak for themselves and have been widely recognized by the real estate community and beyond. In 2020, he received the prestigious European Award for Technology and Innovation from the European Institute of Technology and Innovation (EITI), a testament to his ongoing quest for innovative solutions in the real estate world.

In 2021, his commitment and business talent were once again rewarded with the EUROPEAN AWARD for Business Talent, an accolade that recognizes outstanding leaders who make a significant contribution to the development of the real estate and business sectors.

A Global Vision for the Future

With an ambitious futuristic vision, Alberto Conesa aspires to extend his influence and knowledge to real estate agencies and agents worldwide. His goal is clear: to elevate the global real estate industry to new heights. His proven strategies are applicable in any context and market, and his passion for transforming lives and businesses is contagious.

To stay updated on Alberto Conesa’s latest insights and tips, you can follow him on social media under the handle @AlbertoConesaOfficial. Furthermore, for more information about his work and access to valuable resources, we invite you to visit his website at www.BrandingCenter.com.

Alberto Conesa is a name that resonates strongly in the real estate industry. His legacy is a testament to how passion, dedication, and knowledge can transform the real estate world and propel it to new heights of success. His story continues to be written, and his impact is only growing.

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Real Estate

Colorado Gov. Polis signs new batch of gun laws

Colorado Gov. Jared Polis (D) signed a new batch of gun legislation into law on Friday, several months after a deadly mass shooting at an LGBTQ nightclub in Colorado Springs.

The laws establish a three-day waiting period to obtain a firearm, raise the minimum age to purchase firearms to 21, make it easier to sue gun manufacturers and expand the state’s red flag law.

“Coloradans deserve to be safe in our communities, in our schools, our grocery stores, nightclubs and everywhere in between,” Polis said at the bill signing, according to The Colorado Sun.

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Five people were killed and 17 were injured in November when a 22-year-old gunman opened fire at Club Q, an LGBTQ nightclub in Colorado Springs.

A proposed assault weapons ban failed to make it to the governor’s desk alongside the other gun control legislation after the House Judiciary Committee voted last week to postpone consideration of the bill indefinitely.

However, legislation to ban the sale and manufacture of so-called “ghost guns,” or unserialized firearms, remains under consideration in the Colorado state Senate.

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2 Cases Filed Against Wrestling Body Chief, 1 Of Them For Harassing Minor

he Delhi Police, which functions under Amit Shah’s Home Ministry, filed the two first information reports (FIRs) hours after the Supreme Court ordered them to do so.

The Delhi Police have filed two cases against Wrestling Federation of India (WFI) chief Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh after the country’s top wrestlers made allegations of sexual harassment against him.
The Delhi Police, which functions under Amit Shah’s Home Ministry, filed the two first information reports (FIRs) hours after the Supreme Court ordered them to do so, amid protests at Delhi’s Jantar Mantar by wrestlers including Bajrang Punia, Sakshi Malik and Vinesh Phogat.

One of the FIRs is over a complaint of sexual harassment by a minor, filed under the stringent Protection of Children from Sexual Offences (POCSO) Act, which gives no scope for bail.

The Delhi Police will pursue the case actively, sources said.

Mr Singh, who is also a BJP MP, welcomed the Supreme Court’s order to file the police case into allegations of sexual harassment against him.

Mr Singh told reporters the wrestlers should have waited for the report of a committee that was tasked to look into the matter before they decided to sit on a protest in Delhi’s Jantar Mantar.

«I am happy with the judiciary’s decision. The Delhi Police will investigate the allegations and I am ready to cooperate with them in every possible way. No one is bigger than the judiciary in this country. The order has come to file an FIR (first information report). The government had also said it had no objection to filing an FIR. I am not larger than the Supreme Court. I welcome the order,» Mr Singh told reporters.

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