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Will the Fed raise interest rates in 2023? Yes. Higher hikes expected

Federal Reserve officials predicted last week that they’ll need to raise interest rates more than they had planned in 2023 to bring down inflation.

Fed rate hikes increase the cost of borrowing money for a car or house and of carrying a credit card balance. They also create a more volatile stock market that could hurt the 401(k) plans of millions of Americans.

So how high will interest rates go in 2023? Some top economists and markets believe they won’t go as high as the Fed is forecasting. Here’s why.

The Federal Reserve’s final interest rate hike of the year, while historically large at half a percentage point, marked a step down from four straight three-quarters-point increases.
In other words, the Fed is slowing the pace of its flurry of rate increases this year, which are intended to curtail high inflation. That will better allow the central bank to assess the effects of the aggressive moves, including whether they’re about to tip the U.S. into a recession next year as most economists predict.

Last Wednesday, Fed officials forecast a total three-quarters-point more in rate increases next year before they pause, bringing the benchmark rate to a peak of about 5.1%, substantially higher than today’s 4.3% and the 4.6% peak rate they predicted in September.

More struggles for housing?:Housing market predictions: Six experts weigh in on the real estate outlook in 2023
Rent hikes are easing:Cost of rent increasing in some places, but not nationwide. Here’s our state-by-state guide.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed has a “ways to go” before it takes a breather and holds rates steady.

To some economists, the hard-nosed stance seems at odds with reports showing inflation easing more than expected the past couple of months.

Consumer prices rose 7.1% annually in November, down from 8.2% in September and a 40-year high of 9.1% in June, according to the Consumer Price Index. That’s still well above the Fed’s 2% target but a sign of progress.

Yet the Fed revised up its forecast of another inflation measure at the end of 2023 by three-tenths of a percentage point to 3.1% and a “core” reading that excludes volatile food and energy items by nearly half a point to 3.5%.

“What data are they looking at?” asks Tom Porcelli, chief economist of RBC Capital Markets.
Even a normally conservative futures market that predicts interest rate movements doesn’t believe the Fed. It figures the Fed will halt its rate increases at about 4.8% as inflation throttles back and the economy worsens, according to CME Group.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index has tumbled about 4% since the Fed announcement, giving back much of the 7.5% gain over the prior six weeks, sparked largely by the encouraging inflation reports and hopes for a less aggressive Fed.

Higher rates mean more pain for the economy and corporate earnings and spur investors to move money from stocks to less risky bonds.

Stock market guide:How to buy stocks: A basic introduction to the market for first-time investors.

Powell says the Fed welcomes the easing of inflation but it needs to see “substantially more evidence” that “inflation is on a sustained downward path.”

While inflation of goods like used cars and furniture is moderating as supply snags ease, Powell said, the price of services such as restaurant visits continues to rise sharply because of persistent labor shortages that force employers to increase wages and, in turn, raise prices.
In November, employers added a healthy 263,000 jobs and average hourly earnings increased robust 5.2% annually, up from 4.7% the previous month.

Tips on snaring that raise:What do you say when asking for a raise? One expert guides you through the conversation.

Jonathan Millar, senior U.S. economist at Barclays, buys Powell’s argument.
“It’s hard to see a labor market that strong generating 2% inflation,” Millar says.
In other words, while inflation has come down, Fed officials don’t necessarily believe the trend will last. And so they feel they must raise interest rates higher than planned to make it more expensive for employers to borrow money to hire and invest, damping job growth and wage increases.

Some economists say the Fed is more worried about the buoyant stock market and long-term interest rates that fell sharply as inflation pulled back.

A vibrant stock market makes consumers feel wealthier, prompting them to spend more. And lower long-term rates – such as for mortgages – lead consumers and businesses alike to borrow and spend more.

Such developments bolster the economy but could well fuel more inflation. As a result, the theory goes, Fed policymakers aren’t really that gloomy about inflation and the path of interest rates. They just need to say they are in order to dampen the market and goose borrowing costs, helping bring inflation down.

“It’s hard to know whether Fed officials really believe their own projections, or whether they are making a point to try and reverse some of the loosening in financial conditions over the past month,” economist Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics wrote in a note to clients.
Some economists are also puzzled because the Fed’s inflation forecast doesn’t seem to jibe with its economic projections.

The Fed expects the economy to grow just 0.5% next year, weaker than the 1.2% it forecast in September. And it reckons the 3.7% unemployment will rise to 4.6% by the end of next year, above the 4.4% it had estimated.

Normally, a softer economy and higher unemployment lead to less inflation because fewer shoppers are buying products and fewer employers are hiring, curbing pay increases.
“Those inflation numbers are hard to square,” Porcelli wrote in a note to clients.

Millar, however, notes a traditional model that says higher unemployment means lower pay increases and inflation, and vice versa, hasn’t held true in recent years. As a result, he says, it may take a much higher unemployment rate to tamp down inflation.

So what will the Fed actually do next year?
Despite its forecasts, economists expect the central bank to halt its rate hikes sooner if inflation continues to ease and the economy weakens in coming months.

“We think a slowing economy and progress on inflation will allow the Fed to stop short of that forecast,” says economist Nancy Vanden Houten of Oxford Economics. She looks for just another quarter-point rate increase in February, nudging the rate to 4.6%.

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The Economy Is Improving in Three Major Ways

The bad news you probably already know. Mortgage costs are brutal at the moment, putting homeownership out of reach for millions of Americans. The pace of inflation is coming down but remains high, meaning consumer goods keep getting more expensive. Businesses are bracing for a recession. The economy is just weird right now, suffused with uncertainty and crossed with mixed signals.

Nevertheless, Americans have some positive short-term trends to celebrate, among them falling gas prices. Better still are three long-term trends that, despite their economy-transforming magnitude, have gone largely uncelebrated or even unnoticed. These trends promise a more dynamic economy not only in 2023 but also in the coming decades.

A decade ago, President Barack Obama called economic inequality “the defining challenge of our time,” arguing that “the next few years will determine whether or not our children will grow up in an America where opportunity is real.” At the time, data showed the middle class shrinking, average wages stagnating, and the wealthy eating up all the gains from economic growth. Rising inequality was paralyzing Washington and fraying the country’s politics. Yet around the time of Obama’s speech, inequality stopped rising. In the past three years, the country has become more equal, at least by some measures.

I don’t want to overstate things: Income and wealth are still distributed very unequally in the United States, much as they were in the Gilded Age. The haves are still trouncing the have-nots. The country’s level of inequality remains a threat to its political stability and long-term growth trajectory. Still, wage growth of late has been fastest for the poorest workers, David Autor of MIT and Arindrajit Dube and Annie McGrew of the University of Massachusetts at Amherst recently found—so much so that, the pandemic notwithstanding, the past few years have erased one-third of the growth in the wage gap between the highest- and lowest-paid workers over the past four decades.

Annie Lowrey: The economy’s fundamental problem has changed
The country’s wealth inequality has eased a little too, although the explanation isn’t entirely salutary. The value of assets held by the top 0.1 percent of the wealth distribution has dropped from $18.4 trillion to $16.9 trillion in the past three quarters; the holdings of the top 10 percent have fallen from $98.6 trillion to $92 trillion. (The bottom 50 percent, by the way, accounts for less than $5 trillion.) Rich people still own the bulk of the assets; those assets are just trading for less, thanks to the downturn in the stock market and in high-end real estate. A more encouraging sign in 2023 would be if wealth inequality declines because more middle-class and low-income families also get to own homes, stocks, and businesses.

Fourteen years ago, analysts at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services thought that health spending would be roughly 22 percent of GDP in 2022. The real share was 18.3 percent. Government actuaries spent years overestimating the number of dollars Americans would spend in hospitals and doctor’s offices—a decade-plus ago, they thought we would be spending about $700 billion more on an annual basis than we are today—and the share of the economy devoted to health care. That is because the “cost curve” bent.

Nothing scared the green-eyeshade set like the cost curve projected in the aughts—a swoop showing Medicare spending, national health expenditures, or both growing faster than the economy itself did. Their projections, and thus their worries, were rooted in reality: The country’s health expenditures were swelling by tens of billions of dollars a year, and the country’s population was aging, meaning demand for health care would go up.

Read: What does a good health-care system look like?
But for the past 15 years, health-care spending growth has been subdued, leaving aside the catastrophic early years of the pandemic. As a result, CMS anticipates that health spending as a share of GDP should be stable over the next decade at roughly 20 percent. And the CBO sees Medicare spending rising from 5.8 percent of GDP to just 6.8 percent of GDP 10 years from now—a reasonable amount, given the rising share of older Americans.

What happened? Any number of things. The Great Recession and slow recovery that followed dampened health spending for years. More employers started offering and more people signed up for high-deductible health plans, which come with significant out-of-pocket costs and discourage people from seeking care. The Affordable Care Act implemented a series of cost controls in Medicare. And pharmaceutical companies have conjured up fewer new, expensive drugs.

Of course, the country still spends an extraordinary amount on health care while having significantly lower life expectancies and worse health outcomes than its peers. And families are still struggling with crushing out-of-pocket costs. But in the long term, the bending of the cost curve promises higher wages for families and more room in the federal budget for other priorities.

It took 76 months for the economy to recover every single job it shed in the Great Recession. It took 30 months for it to recover every job it lost during the pandemic. And in this most recent recession, the labor market gained back the majority of jobs it lost in less than a year—far faster than after the housing crash.

This is an extraordinary policy triumph. An unprecedented downturn hit, and the government—with loose monetary policy and trillions of dollars of stimulus spending—buoyed millions of families through it, unlike during the Great Recession. The economy has not lost any potential output due to the COVID recession, economists think. Long-term unemployment has barely grown. The government’s income supports made low-income families more than whole.

Earnings among the poorest workers actually increased by 66 percent in 2020 because of boosted unemployment-insurance payments and stimulus checks; during each of the prior two recessions, the same group of Americans lost a quarter of its earnings.

Jerusalem Demsas: Why so many COVID predictions were wrong
Prior recessions left grievous scars. Many laid-off workers experienced worse health and permanently lower earnings trajectories; in some cases, their children’s educational and employment prospects were diminished too. Economists are now hopeful that the COVID downturn might not cause such permanent damage.

Each of these overlooked but hugely consequential trends means a more vibrant, productive economy today and in the future. The COVID stimulus program saved jobs, lives, and livelihoods while protecting the economy’s productive capacity. The moderation in inequality means less food insecurity and healthier kids growing up in low-income households. The bending of the cost curve frees up money for wage increases and gives the government space in the budget for investments in child care, social insurance, infrastructure, and everything else.

Yet each feels like just a beginning. An efficient and effective health system, the end of poverty, and lower inequality—these are things worth fighting for in the new year.

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Billy Packer, Straight-Talking College Basketball Analyst, Dies at 82

With partners on NBC and then CBS, and with a rapid, opinionated style, he was heard during every N.C.A.A. men’s basketball tournament from 1975 to 2008.

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By Richard Sandomir.

Billy Packer, the sharp-eyed, opinionated lead college basketball analyst for NBC and CBS whose commentary was heard during every Final Four game of the N.C.A.A. men’s basketball tournament from 1975 to 2008, died on Thursday in Charlotte, N.C. He was 82.

His son Brandt said the cause was kidney failure.
A former point guard and assistant coach at Wake Forest University, Mr. Packer began as a broadcast analyst in the early 1970s as the men’s tournament, and especially the Final Four, became the signature sports event known as March Madness. He took to the national stage easily with a fast-talking, straightforward style and opinions that provoked strong feelings among fans.

“He had the ability to make every fan base feel he was against them, and he relished that role,” Jim Nantz, who became Mr. Packer’s partner at CBS Sports in 1991, said in a phone interview on Friday. “He wore the black hat better than anyone I’d ever seen.” He added: “North Carolina thought he was in the bag for Duke. Duke thought he was pro-North Carolina. He loved it.”

At NBC Sports, Mr. Packer worked with Dick Enberg and Al McGuire, a former coach at Marquette University, forming one of the most popular announcing teams in sports. Mr. Packer and Mr. McGuire had different views not just of basketball but also of the world, and they played off each other well, with Mr. Enberg acting as the straight man.

Their partnership broke up in 1981, when the tournament’s television rights were acquired by CBS. Switching networks, Mr. Packer worked with several partners, including Brent Musburger and Mr. Nantz, with whom he stayed until he retired in 2008.

Mr. Packer was largely serious on the air, without any schtick, unlike ESPN’s exuberant Dick Vitale; he stuck instead to X’s and O’s and strategy, with a healthy dose of opinion about the game he was watching and the state of college basketball.

“The poor guy is so serious about basketball that he can’t have any fun with it,” Mr. McGuire once said. “It’s all life or death. There’s no in-between with Billy. If it’s on his mind, it jumps out of his mouth. But bless his heart, his mind is just as fast as his mouth.”

In 2004, Mr. Packer excoriated St. Joseph’s University as a No. 1 seed in its region in the N.C.A.A. tournament. The next year, he criticized N.C.A.A. officials for choosing some mid-major conference teams for the tournament while excluding teams from larger conferences that he deemed better.

More problematic was the time in 1996 when he called the Georgetown University guard Allen Iverson, who is Black, a “tough little monkey.” He apologized on the air, saying he had not intended the comment to be racial. “Al Capone was a tough monkey,” he said. “Mike Ditka was a tough monkey. Bobby Hurley was a tough monkey.”

In 2000, he snapped at two female students who were checking press passes at Duke’s Cameron Indoor Stadium, saying, according to news reports, “Since when do we let women control who gets into a men’s basketball game?” He later apologized.

Anthony William Paczkowski was born on Feb. 25, 1940, in Wellsville, N.Y., near the Pennsylvania border, and moved to Bethlehem, Pa., where his father, also named Anthony, was hired to coach the Lehigh University men’s basketball team. The elder Mr. Packer changed the family name soon afterward. Billy’s mother, Lois (Cruikshank) Packer, was a homemaker.

Billy played guard at Wake Forest University in Winston-Salem, N.C., and led the team to two Atlantic Coast Conference titles and to the Final Four in 1962, which the Demon Deacons lost to Ohio State. He totaled 1,316 points in his career, finishing second in scoring in each of his three years.

He graduated with a bachelor’s degree in economics in 1962 and returned to Wake Forest in 1966 as an assistant coach. He held that job until 1970 while also working in the furniture business. In the early 1970s, while Mr. Packer was sales manager for a radio station in Winston-Salem, a friend asked him to fill in for the announcer of an A.C.C. game being televised by a syndicator.

“I wasn’t nervous,” he told The Chapel Hill News in 1974. “I figured I’d just walk in and tell the people what I saw, and that’s it. And that’s been my approach throughout.”

He became a regular on syndicated broadcasts and was hired by NBC in 1974, putting him in place to be at the center of college basketball for the next 34 years. He was there for John Wooden’s last game as the U.C.L.A coach in 1975; the title-game victory of Magic Johnson’s Michigan State team over Larry Bird’s Indiana State team in 1979; North Carolina State’s last-second win over Houston to win the 1983 championship; and the successes of Duke, Indiana, Louisville, Kansas and the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

“He knew the game — cold,” Kevin O’Malley, the former CBS Sports executive who hired Mr. Packer in 1981, wrote in an email. He added, “Billy was the best basketball analyst at doing one very important thing in a fast-paced game — ‘see it and say it.’ He wasted no words and reacted to what he saw on the floor instantaneously — a really invaluable trait for the broadcast.”
After retiring from CBS, Mr. Packer was replaced by Clark Kellogg.

In addition to his son Brandt, a golf producer at NBC Sports and Golf Channel, Mr. Packer is survived by another son, Mark, the host of a daily television program on the ACC Network, which covers A.C.C. sports; his daughter, Liz Kimberly; four grandchildren; his sister, Carol Dague; and his brother, Richard. His wife, Barbara (Sucansky) Packer, died last year.

Mr. Packer said that broadcasting was a hobby for him, compared with his interests in real estate and golf course development and art collecting. He also pursued other paths: He hired a psychic to find the knife used in the murders of O.J. Simpson’s former wife, Nicole Brown Simpson, and her friend Ron Goldman in 1994. And he started a defense fund for Richard Jewell, the security guard who was wrongly suspected of planting a pipe bomb in Atlanta that killed one person and injured more than 100 during the 1996 Summer Olympics.

Mr. Packer had an entrepreneurial streak that he demonstrated on the Friday before the 1995 Final Four at the Kingdome in Seattle. Bryant Reeves, the Oklahoma State center, shattered the backboard on a layup drill during the team’s practice, sending pieces of it all over the court. Mr. Packer went after the shards, stuffing his pockets with pieces shaped like three- or four-carat diamonds.

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U.S. Home Price Insights – January 2023

The CoreLogic Home Price Insights report features an interactive view of our Home Price Index product with analysis through November 2022 with forecasts through November 2023.
CoreLogic HPI™ is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends. The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ (with a 30-year forecast horizon), project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—Single-Family Combined (both Attached and Detached) and Single-Family Combined excluding distressed sales.

The report is published monthly with coverage at the national, state and Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)/Metro level and includes home price indices (including distressed sale); home price forecast and market condition indicators. The data incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends.

November 2022 National Home Prices
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 8.6% in November 2022 compared with November 2021. On a month-over-month basis, home prices declined by 0.2% in November 2022 compared with October 2022 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).

Forecast Prices Nationally
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will decrease on a month-over-month basis by 0.1% from November to December 2022 and on a year-over-year basis by 2.8% from November 2022 to November 2023.

Year-over-year home price growth ended its 21-month streak of double-digit momentum in November, posting an 8.6% gain, the lowest rate of appreciation in exactly two years. Although 16 states bucked the national trend and saw annual double-digit increases, appreciation is decelerating in many popular housing markets across the country. Southeastern states still led the country for price growth in November but also saw some of the most pronounced cooling. Similarly, relatively more expensive Western areas also posted substantial combined declines in recent months since spring’s peak.

Nationwide, the recent price deceleration pushed November home values 2.5% below the spring 2022 peak. In 2023, home values will likely move even further from that high point, as CoreLogic expects price growth to begin recording negative year-over-year readings in the second quarter.

“Although home price growth has been slowing rapidly and will continue to do so in 2023, strong gains in the first half of last year suggest that total 2022 appreciation was only slightly lower than that recorded in 2021. However, 2023 will present its own challenges, as consumers remain wary of both the housing market and the overall economic outlook.

And while the recent decline in mortgage rates may bode well for the housing market, potential homebuyers are grappling with the idea of buying amid possible further price declines and a continued inventory shortage. Nevertheless, with slowly improving affordability and a more optimistic economic outlook than previously believed, the housing market could show resilience in 2023.“

– Selma Hepp- Executive, Deputy Chief Economist for CoreLogic
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

Nationally, home prices increased 8.6 % year over year in November. No states posted an annual decline in home prices. The states with the highest increases year over year were Florida (18%), South Carolina (13.9%) and Georgia (13.6%).

The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

These large cities continued to experience price increases in November, with Miami again on top at 21.3% year over year.

The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI), a monthly update of the overall health of housing markets across the country, predicts that Bellingham, WA is at a very high risk (70%-plus probability) of a decline in home prices over the next 12 months. Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL; Salem, OR;  Merced, CA and Urban Honolulu, HI are also at very high risk for price declines.

CoreLogic HPI features deep, broad coverage, including non-disclosure state data. The index is built from industry-leading real-estate public record, servicing, and securities databases—including more than 40 years of repeat-sales transaction data—and all undergo strict pre-boarding assessment and normalization processes.

CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts both provide multi-tier market evaluations based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales, helping clients hone in on price movements in specific market segments.

Updated monthly, the index is the fastest home-price valuation information in the industry—complete home-price index datasets five weeks after month’s end. The Index is completely refreshed each month—all pricing history from 1976 to the current month—to provide the most up-to-date, accurate indication of home-price movements available.

The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — “Single-Family Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.

About Market Risk Indicator
Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall “health” of housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.

Source: CoreLogic
The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. This data may not be resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Robin Wachner at newsmedia@corelogic.com. For sales inquiries, contact sales@corelogic.com. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.

About CoreLogic
CoreLogic is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider. The company’s combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit .

CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, CoreLogic HPI and CoreLogic HPI Forecast are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

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