Han sido unos años salvajes para el mercado inmobiliario. Si está pensando en comprar o vender en 2023, probablemente se sienta un poco preocupado por el proceso.
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Más: En qué se diferenciará la recesión de 2023 de la de 2008 y cómo debe prepararse de manera diferente
No hay forma de saber exactamente qué desafíos enfrentará, pero desea estar lo más preparado posible. GOBankingRates habló con varios expertos en bienes raíces para averiguar cómo creen que podría ser el mercado inmobiliario de este año.
Buyers Will Get Some Leverage
“The market has shifted to a buyer-friendlier market, but sellers still hold a lot of cards,” said Lindsay McLean, co-founder and CEO of HomeLister. “As mortgage rates rise and affordability dips, sellers may have to shift their expectations to match the changing market — and buyers [will] have more leverage.”
Despite that, she said the market will return to a more balanced position than in previous years.
“Buyers are finding they can once again buy without waiving contingencies and sellers are starting to offer concessions,” she said. “However, many sellers hold low-interest-rate mortgages and are not under pressure to sell and so may hold out for the offers that they want.”
Los precios de las viviendas podrían disminuir
El mercado de la vivienda ha cambiado considerablemente, pero McLean dijo que aún es difícil decir si esto significa que los precios de las viviendas disminuirán en 2023.
“Si bien los precios han caído desde donde estaban en su punto máximo en esta época el año pasado, todavía están por encima de los precios de 2021 en muchos mercados”, dijo. “Las tasas hipotecarias se han estabilizado un poco en diciembre y la actividad de las ofertas parece reanudarse, ya que los compradores están volviendo lentamente a la mesa”.
No, you don’t need to freak out over Facebook’s new listings rule
Is it over for real estate agents to post their listings on Facebook? Here’s what’s going on. So you may have gotten an email over the last few days, if you’re a real estate agent, saying that you cannot post real estate listings to Facebook anymore, and you might have freaked out.
Here’s what this means. The change that’s happening to Facebook is that you cannot post your listings to Facebook Marketplace through your business page. That’s the only change that’s happening.
So can you still post your listings to your Facebook business page? Yes. You can also still link to your website. You can still post photos of your listings on your business page. You can still post videos, Reels, Stories, and all of that. Facebook Live can still happen on your Facebook business page.
The only change is if you’re posting rentals or properties through Facebook Marketplace, you have to do so through your personal profile, not your business page. That’s it. This has caused a lot of concern, but that’s all that this email means.
Katie Lance is the author of #GetSocialSmart and founder and CEO of Katie Lance Consulting, a social media strategy firm and founder of the #GetSocialSmart Academy. She’s been recognized by Inman News as one of the 100 most influential people in real estate and is a featured keynote speaker at many industry events. Katie is also is the author of the best-selling book, #GetSocialSmart.
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Wisconsin experts predict 2023 inflation, employment, housing trends
APPLETON – In November, the Wisconsin Department of Revenue released a forecast wherein IHS Markit, a provider of information, analytics, and solutions for governments and financial markets, predicted a slight recession in the last quarter of 2022 and continuing into the first half of 2023.
“Inflation continues to be the largest downside risk to the economic outlook,” it stated.
It is now projected that the Consumer Price Index — a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services — will rise 4.3% next year.
Over the past 12 months, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an increased CPI of 6.8% in the Midwest region. The bureau also reported an increase of 11.7% in food prices, and an increase in energy prices of 11%, due to an increase in the price of gasoline.
Brad Tank, an investment management expert and University of Wisconsin-Madison alumnus, thinks federal officials will be successful in limiting inflation in 2023.
Tank explained in a recent UW Now livestream, “Predictions for 2023,” that he expects inflation to remain above 4% up until the middle of 2023. The rate most likely wouldn’t hit 2% until 2024.
Inflation, he said, is most likely to continue due to factors that coincided with the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
“A big part of that is the demographic shift affecting workforces for major world powers including the United States and China,” Tank said.
Aside from a slight recession, here’s what economic changes are predicted for Wisconsin for 2023:
The Wisconsin Department of Revenue predicts employment throughout the state will post small declines of 0.4%, fluctuating around 4.6% in 2023.
Through October, the Wisconsin unemployment rate sat at 48,800 jobs, which was 1.6% below its rate before the COVID-19 pandemic hit in February 2020.
Nationally, there will be less job hopping and fewer counteroffers — offers made by an employer, such as a better salary package or career prospects — in 2023 as demand for talent and the supply for candidates becomes steady, Forbes predicted in November.
“Salary rises will be less common, too,” Forbes wrote. “Many employers have already increased wages over the past 12 months — a shortfall of talent left them with little choice. So, any pay raises they can afford to award in the future will be marginal.”
The state’s Department of Revenue reported a 7.8% wage growth in Wisconsin in 2022.
“Generally, we are seeing many of the same hiring trends from the past two years persist into 2023,” said Jeffrey Sachse, director of the Center for Customized Research and Services (CCRS) and economic development at UW-Oshkosh. “Companies are hiring across most staffing levels with a focus in health care and manufacturing on entry level workers, citing attendance and time management as key concerns. This continues to drive up wage rates in a more competitive environment.”
Sachse said while there are some genuine concerns for a recession in 2023, it is unlikely that there will be large layoffs locally, because many firms are already understaffed.
“I have seen projections recently of the local unemployment rate increasing to as high as 4.5% by the end of 2023, but this is still well below historical averages,” Sachse said.
The Department of Revenue predicts professional and business services will face the largest decline in the new year. The construction industry will be the second most affected, as high interest rates are expected to continue reducing home affordability, resulting in a decline in residential investments. Manufacturing jobs are also expected to decline within the next two years.
Ryan Long, a Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development regional economist in the Bay Area and Fox Cities, said its most recent data from August showed 1.73 job openings per unemployed job seekers. Long said this ratio has been on a downward trend since April.
Long said that some challenges the workforce had been facing pre-pandemic and throughout 2021 were also due to long-term demographic patterns such as an aging population, declining labor force participation rate, below-replacement fertility and minimal net migration. These patterns will also need to be addressed in order to bring the workforce back to a stable market.
This year proved to be difficult for people looking to buy homes, as demand to purchase became greater than the inventory of houses available.
Because of low inventory, those who did find a house often had to put in an offer higher than usual.
According to the Wisconsin Realtors Association, Wisconsin inventories remained very tight, in March 2022 there continued to be just 2.1 months of available supply. Rapidly rising prices and a significant uptick in mortgage rates, 4.17% in March, has led to a reduction in housing affordability across the state by 19.5%.
Michael Sewell, president of Realtors Association of Northeast Wisconsin, said local interest rates have gone up significantly in the past year and are about the highest they have been in 20 years.
However, Sewell said he believes interest rates will begin to decline in the beginning of the year.
“I think, probably, by the middle of the year, they’ll be around 5½ (percent), and I think they’re going to hover between 5 and 5½ for a while,” Sewell said.
According to the Wisconsin Realtors Association, the average cost of a home in November 2022 was $259,950, a jump from $240,000, the average cost in November 2021. The number of sales averaged 5,400, down from the 7,905 sales in November 2021.
The report shows that in Outagamie County, sales have continued to decrease since 2020 while prices have steadily increased since then.
Trends in the national real estate market doesn’t necessarily reflect local real estate market, Sewell said. Although the market is still seeing high interest rates, Sewell said the Northeast Wisconsin market is much more stable than many other parts of the country.
“The reason we’ve had issues the last couple years is because inventory’s low,” Sewell said. “There’s much higher demand for houses than we have supply.”
Sewell said, going into 2023, there will be an increase in inventory over the course of the year, but demand will continue to be greater than supply.
Part of the reason inventory is low is because people are hesitant to move or purchase a new home because their current interest rate is lower than what the average rate is now, Sewell said.
“But I think as interest rates start to loosen up after the first of the year that we will see more of those people decide to put their house on the market and that will help our inventory as well,” Sewell said.
Foreclosure trends will change going into the new year as well. For the past two years, foreclosure rates had declined due to homeowners receiving extra funds from forgiveness programs put in place by the pandemic.
Now that most of the programs are done, foreclosure rates will increase bringing them slightly higher than what the normal rate has been in the past.
“Back in the last recession, in 2008, 2009, 2010, people’s houses weren’t worth what they owed on them,” Sewell said.
Now, most homeowners have significant equity, meaning even if they’re struggling to make payments they have the option to sell their home, pay off their loan and move forward.
Despite these changes, Sewell believes Northeast Wisconsin will have a more normalized market moving forward into 2023.
“There won’t be as many as many sales as we’ve had the last couple of years, but I think that it’ll still be a very solid market in the coming year,” Sewell said.
Texas Housing Market In 2023 Bankrate
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Texas, the country’s second-most populous state, is a top relocation destination for people seeking an affordable cost of living and below-average housing prices. In fact, Texas had the largest population growth of any U.S. state in 2021, according to Census data.
Living in the Lone Star State certainly has its perks. Not only are the winters milder than in much of the country, but life’s everyday expenses are cheaper as well. Plus, the state doesn’t charge its residents any income tax. Even better? Two Texas cities, Austin and San Antonio, made Bankrate’s most recent list of best places to live in the U.S.
However, rising mortgage rates and slowing home sales are affecting home sellers and buyers all across the country, including Texas. Let’s dive into the Lone Star State’s housing market for 2023.
Because Texas is such a big state, housing trends and prices vary quite a bit depending on the city and region. For example, according to Redfin data, the median home price in Austin — where the tech industry has been expanding rapidly — is $540,000. That’s more than double the median price in a less buzzy town like Amarillo, where the median is just $207,500. Use Bankrate’s new-house calculator to see how much house you can afford.
Whether you’re thinking about buying or selling a home in Texas, it’s important to understand the current housing market and how it might affect you.
For years, housing availability in the Lone Star State has been decreasing while prices increased, which was great news for sellers. Supply hit a shocking low in February 2022, when there was only a one-month supply of unsold existing homes, according to the Texas Real Estate Research Center. A balanced market requires about six months’ worth of inventory. The supply had increased to 2.9 months as of November 2022, and the market has started to become a bit more buyer-friendly. But as mortgage rates spiked during the second half of the year, many buyers held off on purchasing a home.
If you’re a home seller in Texas, several facets of the market are on your side. The state is still in seller’s market territory: Demand remains high, and prices are still up year-over-year, despite the decline in the last several months. However, since interest rates are still high, many buyers won’t be able to spend as much on a house — be aware of how much your home is worth, and be mindful when choosing a listing price.
For hopeful Texas homebuyers, there’s both good and bad news. Unfortunately, although prices are down from their mid-year peak, they’re still up from this time last year. And with today’s steep mortgage rates, you might not be able to borrow as much money as you would have a year ago. On the positive side, though, you’ll face less competition if you decide to purchase a home now, as many buyers have decided to hold off. Just make sure you have a good grasp on your finances, and get preapproved for a mortgage before you start your house hunt. Preapproval helps you understand how much you can afford, so you don’t stretch yourself too thin.
With stubbornly high mortgage rates and an uncertain economic outlook, it’s easy to understand why some people are worried. Will there be a housing crash? Fortunately, experts don’t think so.
National real estate market predictions for early 2023 foresee a slowdown, but not a crash. And local Texas experts agree. For example, the Denton Record-Chronicle reports that the Dallas–Fort Worth area is in a “housing downturn,” but things are nowhere near as bad as they were back in 2008.
Working with an experienced local real estate agent is one of the best ways to get insight into the Texas housing market. Agents know their market inside-out and can guide you through the buying or selling process, help you avoid common mistakes and streamline the time-consuming logistics of a home sale or purchase.
Before hiring a real estate professional, make sure to inquire about their experience, working style, past client successes and anything else that’s important to you. Treat it like a job interview — and don’t be afraid to ask questions.
Texas housing prices were rising for years, until very recently. In January 2020, the median home sale price was $233,000, according to the Texas Real Estate Research Center. By mid-2022, median prices reached a peak of $360,000. They have since slowly ticked down, and as of November 2022, the state’s median sale price was $330,000.
The Austin–Round Rock metro area has been on fire in recent years. It grew exponentially during the pandemic, and though its growth has slowed in recent months, it still has the highest median home sale price in the state. In the past year, the areas with the largest increases in median home sale price include Sherman-Denison (18.1 percent), Tyler (17.7 percent) and Killeen-Temple (17 percent), according to Texas Realtors.
In the Lone Star State, housing and other cost-of-living expenses are cheaper than the national average. There are plenty of affordable places to live, especially if you’re looking in rural areas or outside of the big cities. For instance, the median sale price of a home in Wichita Falls, near the Oklahoma border, is just $186,000, according to Texas Realtors. In Texarkana, bordering Arkansas, the price is $211,000. And in Beaumont–Port Arthur, in the state’s southeast near Louisiana, it’s $218,000.
Bankrate.com is an independent, advertising-supported publisher and comparison service. Bankrate is compensated in exchange for featured placement of sponsored products and services, or your clicking on links posted on this website. This compensation may impact how, where and in what order products appear. Bankrate.com does not include all companies or all available products.
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