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U.S. Home Price Insights – January 2023

The CoreLogic Home Price Insights report features an interactive view of our Home Price Index product with analysis through November 2022 with forecasts through November 2023.
CoreLogic HPI™ is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends. The indexes are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner.
CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ (with a 30-year forecast horizon), project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers—Single-Family Combined (both Attached and Detached) and Single-Family Combined excluding distressed sales.

The report is published monthly with coverage at the national, state and Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA)/Metro level and includes home price indices (including distressed sale); home price forecast and market condition indicators. The data incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends.

November 2022 National Home Prices
Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 8.6% in November 2022 compared with November 2021. On a month-over-month basis, home prices declined by 0.2% in November 2022 compared with October 2022 (revisions with public records data are standard, and to ensure accuracy, CoreLogic incorporates the newly released public data to provide updated results).

Forecast Prices Nationally
The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will decrease on a month-over-month basis by 0.1% from November to December 2022 and on a year-over-year basis by 2.8% from November 2022 to November 2023.

Year-over-year home price growth ended its 21-month streak of double-digit momentum in November, posting an 8.6% gain, the lowest rate of appreciation in exactly two years. Although 16 states bucked the national trend and saw annual double-digit increases, appreciation is decelerating in many popular housing markets across the country. Southeastern states still led the country for price growth in November but also saw some of the most pronounced cooling. Similarly, relatively more expensive Western areas also posted substantial combined declines in recent months since spring’s peak.

Nationwide, the recent price deceleration pushed November home values 2.5% below the spring 2022 peak. In 2023, home values will likely move even further from that high point, as CoreLogic expects price growth to begin recording negative year-over-year readings in the second quarter.

“Although home price growth has been slowing rapidly and will continue to do so in 2023, strong gains in the first half of last year suggest that total 2022 appreciation was only slightly lower than that recorded in 2021. However, 2023 will present its own challenges, as consumers remain wary of both the housing market and the overall economic outlook.

And while the recent decline in mortgage rates may bode well for the housing market, potential homebuyers are grappling with the idea of buying amid possible further price declines and a continued inventory shortage. Nevertheless, with slowly improving affordability and a more optimistic economic outlook than previously believed, the housing market could show resilience in 2023.“

– Selma Hepp- Executive, Deputy Chief Economist for CoreLogic
The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

Nationally, home prices increased 8.6 % year over year in November. No states posted an annual decline in home prices. The states with the highest increases year over year were Florida (18%), South Carolina (13.9%) and Georgia (13.6%).

The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

These large cities continued to experience price increases in November, with Miami again on top at 21.3% year over year.

The CoreLogic Market Risk Indicator (MRI), a monthly update of the overall health of housing markets across the country, predicts that Bellingham, WA is at a very high risk (70%-plus probability) of a decline in home prices over the next 12 months. Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL; Salem, OR;  Merced, CA and Urban Honolulu, HI are also at very high risk for price declines.

CoreLogic HPI features deep, broad coverage, including non-disclosure state data. The index is built from industry-leading real-estate public record, servicing, and securities databases—including more than 40 years of repeat-sales transaction data—and all undergo strict pre-boarding assessment and normalization processes.

CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts both provide multi-tier market evaluations based on price, time between sales, property type, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales, helping clients hone in on price movements in specific market segments.

Updated monthly, the index is the fastest home-price valuation information in the industry—complete home-price index datasets five weeks after month’s end. The Index is completely refreshed each month—all pricing history from 1976 to the current month—to provide the most up-to-date, accurate indication of home-price movements available.

The CoreLogic HPI™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 40 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price—as a function of real disposable income per capita—with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers — “Single-Family Combined” (both attached and detached) and “Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales.” As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.

About Market Risk Indicator
Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall “health” of housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.

Source: CoreLogic
The data provided are for use only by the primary recipient or the primary recipient’s publication or broadcast. This data may not be resold, republished or licensed to any other source, including publications and sources owned by the primary recipient’s parent company without prior written permission from CoreLogic. Any CoreLogic data used for publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, must be sourced as coming from CoreLogic, a data and analytics company. For use with broadcast or web content, the citation must directly accompany first reference of the data. If the data are illustrated with maps, charts, graphs or other visual elements, the CoreLogic logo must be included on screen or website. For questions, analysis or interpretation of the data, contact Robin Wachner at newsmedia@corelogic.com. For sales inquiries, contact sales@corelogic.com. Data provided may not be modified without the prior written permission of CoreLogic. Do not use the data in any unlawful manner. The data are compiled from public records, contributory databases and proprietary analytics, and its accuracy is dependent upon these sources.

About CoreLogic
CoreLogic is a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider. The company’s combined data from public, contributory and proprietary sources includes over 4.5 billion records spanning more than 50 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, and the public sector. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific. For more information, please visit .

CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, CoreLogic HPI and CoreLogic HPI Forecast are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

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Justice Department Investigation TikTok Owner for Spying on U.S. Journalists: Reports

The company admitted in December that some of its employees improperly accessed the data of U.S. journalists in a bid to uncover the source of leaks.

The Justice Department and the FBI are investigating the parent company of the popular social media app TikTok for surveilling American citizens, including journalists.

According to reports, federal authorities began their investigation late last year, after TikTok owner ByteDance Ltd. acknowledged that some of its employees improperly accessed journalists’ location data and other private data. Forbes was the first to report the investigations.

The investigation comes amid scrutiny of the app and a hardening policy stance by a bipartisan group of lawmakers and the White House over concerns that China is using the app to gather data on American citizens and influence elections.

ByteDance is based in China and has ties to the Chinese government. The app is banned from federal government devices, government devices in more than two dozen states and those in several European countries.

The FBI and the Justice Department are part of an agency called the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, which has asked ByteDance to divest from the U.S. arm of the app – or face a potential nationwide ban, which the White House has signaled it might support.

Former President Donald Trump in 2020 issued an executive order that effectively forced the company to divest of its U.S.-held assets, drawing on emergency economic powers. Despite several reports that a sale was imminent, no agreement was reached. The order did not survive legal challenges in federal court and was ultimately revoked by President Joe Biden.

The latest request has come amid ongoing negotiations between the company and the government over its ownership and the storage of data belonging to Americans. ByteDance has previously proposed another plan whereby the data from U.S. users would be stored in the U.S. and managed by a U.S.-based team.

ByteDance said in December that the employees who accessed the journalist’s data did so in a bid to uncover the source of leaks. Those employees have been fired, it said.

Federal prosecutors in Virginia are also investigating ByteDance, according to reports. TikTok Chief Executive Shou Zi Chew is scheduled to testify in front of the House Energy and Commerce Committee next week.

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Is the future of shopping still autonomous?

Dating back to the first vending machine developed in London in the early 1880s to sell postage stamps, autonomous shopping has had a long history.

In 2018, there were an estimated 350 stores in the world offering a fully autonomous checkout process — and this is expected to grow further with 10k autonomous stores anticipated by 2024.

But since then, consumer preferences have shifted: There’s an increased demand for personalisation, on-demand delivery, sustainable consumer choices and the growth of AI.

So how have autonomous stores been affected by these new market trends — and is the sector still on track to hit 10k stores in 2024? Sifted sat down with the experts to find out.

An increased demand for personalisation
Scaling personalisation has been shown to be one of the key retail trends of 2023. Consumers respond well to personalisation throughout the shopping process — from sales and marketing to upselling and after-sales support.

Brands are increasingly relying on consumer data, algorithms and online surveys to fulfil this growing demand for customised products.

For Natasha Thakkar, head of marketing at AiFi, an AI-powered platform that helps retailers scale autonomous shopping solutions, the boom in AI presents the perfect opportunity for it to be used more widely in enabling personalisation in autonomous shopping.

“AI analyses consumer purchase patterns, previous transactions, interests, demographics and other relevant data to help suggest personalised recommendations to the consumer,” she says. “This increases the likelihood of them making a purchase and interacting with the brand more frequently.

Paweł Grabowski, head of unmanned solutions at Żabka Future, a unit of Żabka Group that fosters innovation and finds businesses increasing the value of the convenience store chain, says that autonomous stores (Żabka Nano) allow them to deliver a personalised experience in the offline world. It now operates over 50 stores, making Żabka Nano the largest chain of autonomous stores in Europe.

“It’s like ecommerce shopping, but within brick and mortar — we can collect customer data and track the customer journey at all the stages, which allows us to build advanced analytics, including sales funnel or advanced shopping history based on events.

“The data, combined with our mobile app, enable us to personalise communication, offer and even discount coupons to the customers,” he says.

On-demand delivery and flexible lifestyles
The pandemic drove up the demand for quick online shopping — also known as quick commerce or qcommerce. But now, there’s a shift back to offline shopping and consumers are increasingly opting for a hybrid approach — a mix of online and offline shopping.

40% of consumers who intend to increase in-store shopping and decrease online shopping say it’s because delivery costs are too high.

The experts say that a hybrid approach is the way to go for all brands.

“Both autonomous stores and quick online shopping educate people on how to do grocery shopping differently. We believe in the synergy between those business models,” Grabowski says. “Customers are expecting a complete ecosystem of convenience solutions. Qcommerce is based on dark stores located in good city spots. What if autonomous technology can extend their role to them? Dark stores can then serve both as warehouses and come-and-grab stores for the local community.”

Emanuel de Bellis, associate professor and director of the Institute of Behavioral Science and Technology at the University in St. Gallen, Switzerland, says that he sees autonomous technology working better for quick shopping in local stores. De Bellis’s research focuses on how consumers perceive and use new technologies.

“I don’t see a future with larger stores that are fully autonomous because I don’t really see the incremental benefit — the technology works better for smaller local stores where you can just grab a couple of things,” he says.

Additionally, autonomous stores also give brands the flexibility to operate within settings which were traditionally considered unusual for stores. The ATX Market at Q2 Stadium in Austin, Texas, recently became the first soccer stadium in the world to introduce a checkout-free store.

“Our stores are located in the middle of the offices, dormitories, gyms and inside other stores,” Grabowski adds. “Autonomous stores can provide convenience services in locations where traditional retailers are unable to operate.”

Sustainable consumer choices
Given inflation and the downturn, this may be the right time for brands to leverage technology to improve their offerings and come up with innovative ways for consumers to shop and save.

“Since there’s no checkout staff operating autonomous stores, retailers can operate them 24/7,” says Thakkar. “This not only provides more convenience to the customers, but also helps in increasing the revenue and significantly decreasing operating costs, thereby increasing overall store efficiency.”

Consumers are also increasingly shifting towards conscious shopping habits — buying decisions revolving around ethics, environmentalism and sustainability, regardless of macroeconomic conditions. A 2023 survey shows that 78% of consumers prioritise sustainability.

Grabowski says that at Żabka Group, the business and ESG strategies are interlinked. For example, the stores use only energy from renewable sources.

“Since there’s no checkout staff operating autonomous stores, retailers can operate them 24/7″

“Another crucial element is reducing food wastage: our store is data-driven, so for example, we can accurately predict the demand for fresh products,” he says.

De Bellis says that this also points towards a possible future where human intervention for grocery shopping can be completely eliminated — homes and retailers would be interconnected to predict the items and quantities that need to be purchased and replaced.

“With large amounts of data, it could check what’s in your fridge, for instance, or it could also be connected to many more things such as your blood glucose level and order specific things depending on how healthy you are,” he adds.

“It’s something that we can expect only in the distant future, but are slowly moving towards.”

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Why Do Your Customers Really Buy from You?

The following is a simple question for business owners. Why do your customers buy from you?

I told you the question was simple, but an accurate answer, on the other hand, can be far more complex and perhaps even elusive. To achieve long-term, sustainable success, your understanding of why your customers choose to do business with your company needs to be both correct and substantial.

Many business owners develop a customer value proposition (CVP) alongside their company mission and vision statements. The brief declaration is supposed to document why a customer would opt to buy your product or service over the competition.

While developing a CVP is commendable in its customer-centric approach, it often falls short of its intended purpose due to ambiguity, a lack of self-reflection and sometimes even outright insincerity. Dollars to doughnuts, there is not a single CVP out there that reads, “Our customers turn to us because we deliver lackluster service and a marginally good product.”

Related: Who Is More Important — Your Customers or Your Employees?.

I would also assume that there are many businesses whose CVPs portray an exaggerated sense of the company’s true customer value. CVPs should never be created based on hype or manufactured mantras; instead built from sincere, astute insight.

Bravado and disingenuousness are not the only ways business owners are misguided in their understanding of customer engagement and loyalty. The following are common misconceptions related to the question of why customers buy from you.

“We are the cheapest”
Sure, this value statement might be dressed up as “We deliver the best value,” “We are the low-price leaders,” or some other cost-based differentiator. But when I hear any form of “My customers buy from us because we are the cheapest,” I cringe. Competing on price alone is simply not a good model and is often unsustainable. There is always some other business owner who is willing to run out of cash faster than you are.

Most customers – both B2B and B2C – understand the balance between cost and value. They walk that tightrope in every purchase they make. Contending that cheapest is the key attribute that keeps them coming back shortchanges both your business and your customers.

“We have the best employees”
Forgive me for being a bit skeptical about this assertion as well. Sure, your business may have good employees; but are they really the best? You may provide excellent service, but your competitors probably do as well. Is it truly your employees that keep your customers coming back? With the rare exception of that ultra-charismatic salesperson who charms the socks of buyers, the answer in all likeliness is a resounding no.

That is not to say that hiring for personality and alignment with company values is unimportant. It most definitely is. But to put the onus of success and customer loyalty squarely on the shoulders of your employees is shortsighted.

Related: 3 Reasons Why I Gladly Welcome Competition

“We’ve got the best product on the market”
While possessing a corner on the market is a great position to be in, it does not account for innovations in the marketplace and often fickle changes in consumer preferences. Evolving customer motivations and expectations, coupled with aging business models, have been the downfall of even some of the most successful industry titans.

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